THE IRAQ RECESSION - BROUGHT TO YOU BY REPUBLICANS EVERYWHERE.  

I would like to encourage the use of this slogan - or a better one if someone can write one.  The term Iraq Recession is certainly not my invention.  But I do think we need to tie Iraq and the Recession to all Republicans.  Indeed, Republicans at all levels of government, through their support of Bush, have been enablers.

We need to be able to succinctly summarize several of the major reasons why the Democratic Party needs to win the Presidency and expand its margins in the House and Senate.

Feedback on the usefulness of this rallying cry is appreciated!

(From the diaries -- kos)

Polls will begin closing at 6pm EST (3pm PST), and this diary looks at the first eleven states which have their polls closed by 7:30pm EST.  What should one look for to signal a likely Kerry victory?  For many states, following the results from the news media probably suffices.  For the key states of Ohio and Florida, however, links are provided to allow one to get a more in-depth understanding of the votes reported.

This is an update of a previous diary.  I have tried to gather the latest voter registration totals by state and estimate the turnout this year. I have utilized individual state websites and a summary by Michael McDonald.   I would welcome your feedback if you feel any state estimate is unreasonable.  More recent registration numbers or reports by state officials on expected turnout would also be appreciated.   These estimates rely on past voting behavior, personal observation and news reports from Secretaries of State on expected turnout.  

GOTV is crucial.  125 million is VERY possible and should mean a Kerry victory.

I have tried to gather the latest voter registration totals by state and estimate the turnout this year. I have utilized individual state websites and a summary by Michael McDonald.  I would welcome your feedback if you feel any state estimate is unreasonable.  Also if you have more recent registration numbers or reports by state officials on expected turnout that would also be appreciated.  Values are in thousands.  ND and WI do not require registration before election day. Columns include number of registered voters 2004, percent of registered voters voting in 2000, my estimate of percent of registered voters voting in 2004, and expected number of votes cast in 2004. These estimates rely on personal observation and news reports from Secretaries of State on expected turnout.  

I think 123 million voters might be a few more voters than even the Kerry campaign expects - and dramatically more than the Bush campaign can handle.  GOTV is the key to victory.

While my analysis is not that of an expert, I believe it sheds light on why Kerry should win Oregon. Registration by party is compared for 2004 and 2000 for counties in Oregon. Latest figures are used where available - such as Multnomah County, with the default being the end of August registration figures Oregon Secretary of State. Democrats have expanded their registration margin by approximately 17,000. In nearby Washington state voter turnout is projected at 84% (by Sec. of State ). With even more attention being paid to Oregon, Oregon's turnout is here projected at 84% (up form 79% in 2000). In 2000, Nader (Green) received 77,357 votes. Given the lack of support Nader has received on his visits to the state this year, it is projected that 2/3 of his votes will go to Kerry. Given the above assumptions Kerry should increase his winning margin from 6,765 in 2000 to approximately 78,900 in 2004. This assumes that Democrats, Republicans and Independents all vote in similar percentages for each party as they did in 2000. Realistically I believe Kerry will garner a greater percent of the Independent vote this time and probably will win by more than 100,000 votes in Oregon. Gore carried only 8 of Oregon's counties in his narrow 2000 win.

It is obvious that Ohio and Florida are vital to the election and must be heavily emphasized.  However, I believe it is also essential to have a strategy to win without those two states.  The choice now seems to be holding onto all Gore states (which is becoming more and more likely) and adding New Hampshire (very likely), Nevada (very possible) and one additional state.  Therefore, it is important that the campaign focuses its energy, money and personal visits upon Ohio, Florida, Nevada and one other state.  

The choices for an additional state appear unclear and daunting, but still must be attempted.  Based on the potential for problems in both Ohio and Florida, the Kerry campaign needs to select one additional state for an all out push of time and resources.  Which state should it be?

I believe an effective counter to the charge that Kerry's new domestic programs are too expensive would be to compare their cost to the amount of money currently going to Halliburton each year.  I do not have the specifics, but I would suggest a debate argument or ad such as the following.  Of course, modifications would need to be made based on the actual estimated costs of domestic initiatives and Halliburton payments.  

    "The yearly cost of my health care plan, education initiatives and environmental plans are LESS than the amount we are currently paying to the Halliburton Company each year for Iraq.  In fact there would still be money left over for easing the tax burden on the middle class.  This is the real choice we have - investing in the future of this country or lining the pockets of one company."

If anyone believes this is a worthy talking point, I hope you will recommend this diary or more importantly - those of you with connections, suggest it to the Kerry campaign.

I have just finished analyzing new voter registration in Oregon by county and by political party from the just released numbers for August 2004.  On the surface, the situation appears to be favoring Democrats, but that view is deceptive.  From June to August 2004 Democrat registration increased by 26,072, while Republican registration grew by 13,965.  There is nearly a two to one Democratic advantage in new voter registration.  The results are particularly striking in Multnomah County (Portland), with Democrat registration up 11,119 and Republican registration up 1,786.  

More telling, however, is a comparison of August 2004 with November 2000.  Democratic registration surpasses 2000 in only nine of thirty-six counties.  Republican registration already exceeds 2000 totals in twenty-three counties.  Democrats are still 2,860 registrants short of their 2000 total, while Republicans are already 689 ahead of their 2000 total.  Therefore, registration gains main so far in 2004 have just been playing catchup to reach 2000 levels.  Increased advantage will come only from the gains in registration made during September and October before registration closes October 12.  

The significant efforts by groups registering Democratic voters are vital, but they have not yet paved the way for victory.  Only a concerted effort during Sept./Oct. will provide an improved registration margin.  Thus plenty of reason for guarded optimism in Oregon, but no reason for jubilation just yet.