Musings Over Morning Coffee

According to Rasmussen,

In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.

In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.

And now?

During the month of June, 41.0% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats, 31.5% said they were Republicans and 27.5% were not affiliated with either major party.

This marks the fifth straight month that the number of Democrats has been between 41.0% and 41.7%. During that same period, the number of Republicans has also stabilized, ranging only from 31.4% to 32.1% (see history from January 2004 to present). Prior to February of this year, neither party had ever reached the 39% level of support.

This is the background for the media-driven narrative that Obama and McCain are in a "statistical dead heat". They are not, of course, but to say so would spoil the narrative.

The "statistical dead heat" nonsense was CNN. Frank Newport from Gallup has a more sensible take on summer polling:

We know at the moment that for the most part Obama is maintaining a very modest lead over McCain, ranging from 2 to 7 points in the weeks since Hillary Clinton made it final that she was ending her quest for the presidency. This is equivalent of a first quarter lead of a few points in the Super Bowl.  It's better to be ahead than behind, most coaches would agree.  One has to give Obama the early edge. BUT!  Stay tuned.  There's a lot to come in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters. And polling is our best scorecard.

Polls aren't predictive in July, but those who read them ought to know how to interpret them. A case in point from ABC:

There has been little change in the polls in the weeks since Obama defeated his last Democratic challenger, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York. The latest Gallup polls give Obama a slim 46-44 lead over McCain.

"It's actually very, very close," Stephanopoulos said.

Although not quite that close. Stephanopoulos reported that both camps believe Obama actually has a lead of five to eight percentage points. But Republicans are surprised that the Illinois senator's lead isn't bigger, because McCain is burdened by the unpopularity of President Bush and a sputtering economy.

So, it's not actually "very, very close", and neither camp thinks so. In a hardly-surprising comment, ABC reports that the political camps read the polls the way we do, and not the way Stephanopolous does.  

Okay, despite Stephanopolous' opinion, Obama maintains a small but significant lead. But then that means Obama should be winning by more than he is, right? Well, another interpretation (since it's always Republicans who are surprised Obama's lead isn't bigger, despite the LA Times/Bloomberg and Newsweek polls who had the lead at 15) is that Republicans know how much McCain sucks as a candidate and can't believe he's not losing by more. Still another is that like 1980, until they get to know the new guy better, voters will reserve their opinion until the race is nearer the vote. But that's okay because it sets up the next media narrative: scrappy underdog John McCain is about to make a comeback.

And so the new narrative is primed and in place (and it’s the same as an old narrative): McCain could actually do this thing. (Actually, while the polls remain tight, right now he’d settle for not being counted out -- but he’ll take what he can get.)

You've got all the elements: a new story line with the disciplined Rove protege taking over messaging in the McCain camp, a desire for a close race, an expected attack barrage... and here we go, 2004.

Of course, there are some problems with that. State by state, Obama's doing better than the narrative says. Obama is about to go abroad and get all the good press of "well-received overseas", including by state leaders weary of George W. Bush, and in direct contrast to McCain's "what the hell is he doing in Colombia instead of Akron?" trip. The economy sucks, and McCain will try and convince American voters the party in power is not to blame. And until the polls say that McCain, the candidate with no communication skills, is actually communicating with voters, there's no comeback.

On issues that matter? Maybe the media will talk about them, maybe they won't. Maybe they'll just mark time:

According to Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst , the flip-flopping charge may not resonate as much with voters this year as it did in the past.

"So what if voters think both candidates are flip-floppers?" asked Schneider. "After eight years of George W. Bush, voters may welcome some pragmatism and flexibility in their leaders. Times change."

But don't worry. The media is fired up, even if the voters are not. John McCain's base will make sure you hear the story the way it needs to be told. Otherwise, you might get the wrong impression about who's leading in the polls. An Obama lead, my friends, is not the narrative the media is working from.

Happy July 4, everyone!